Se siguió una muestra de varones nacidos en 1913, mediante exámenes médicos periódicos y datos clínicos del National Hospital Discharge, registrando la causa de fallecimiento. De ellos, 792 hicieron una prueba de esfuerzo ergométrica, en su mayoría (83%) maximal.
Durante cuarenta años de seguimiento, en esta muestra representativa de la población de hombres de mediana edad, aquéllos que tenían baja capacidad aeróbica se asociaron a un aumento de las tasas de mortalidad, independientemente de los factores de riesgo tradicionales, como el tabaquismo, la presión arterial y el colesterol en plasma.
?Low aerobic capacity in middle-aged men associated with increased mortality rates during 45 years of follow-up
- Per Ladenvall1⇑
- Carina U Persson2
- Zacharias Mandalenakis1
- Lars Wilhelmsen1
- Gunnar Grimby2
- Kurt Svärdsudd3
- Per-Olof Hansson1
- 1Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Sweden
- 2Department of Clinical Neuroscience and Rehabilitation, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Sweden
- 3Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden
- Per Ladenvall, Research Unit, Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Östra, Diagnosvägen 11, SE-41685 Gothenburg, Sweden. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Low aerobic capacity has been associated with increased mortality in short-term studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of aerobic capacity for mortality in middle-aged men during 45-years of follow-up.
Design The study design was a population-based prospective cohort study.
Methods: A representative sample from Gothenburg of men born in 1913 was followed from 50–99 years of age, with periodic medical examinations and data from the National Hospital Discharge and Cause of Death registers. At 54 years of age, 792 men performed an ergometer exercise test, with 656 (83%) performing the maximum exercise test.
Results: In Cox regression analysis, low predicted peak oxygen uptake (), smoking, high serum cholesterol and high mean arterial blood pressure at rest were significantly associated with mortality. In multivariable analysis, an association was found between predicted tertiles and mortality, independent of established risk factors. Hazard ratios were 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71–0.89; p < 0.0001) for predicted , 1.01 (1.002–1.02; p < 0.01) for mean arterial blood pressure, 1.13 (1.04–1.22; p < 0.005) for cholesterol, and 1.58 (1.34–1.85; p < 0.0001) for smoking. The variable impact (Wald’s χ2) of predicted tertiles (15.3) on mortality was secondary only to smoking (31.4). The risk associated with low predicted was evident throughout four decades of follow-up.
Conclusion: In this representative population sample of middle-aged men, low aerobic capacity was associated with increased mortality rates, independent of traditional risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure and serum cholesterol, during more than 40 years of follow-up.